ANALYSIS

This policy report examines Ulu Tiram's May 2024 attack in Malaysia, revealing familial radicalisation dynamics. Initially misattributed, this JAD-influenced incident demonstrates how paternal extremist theology systematically groomed the perpetrator, reframing violence as spiritual purification. The case illustrates how isolated ideological environments create significant monitoring challenges, necessitating sophisticated intervention approaches beyond conventional categorisations.

ANALYSIS

Israel's recent strike near Sidon represents a dangerous escalation that wounded Malaysian peacekeepers while continuing a pattern of diminishing regard for international law. The attack follows Netanyahu's unprecedented acknowledgment of the "pager attack" against Hezbollah and coincides with Malaysia's heightened diplomatic activism on Palestinian issues. This calculated aggression, coupled with America's muted response, undermines UN peacekeeping credibility while creating a diplomatic vacuum that Russia and China appear eager to exploit as alternative guarantors of international stability for Global South nations.

REPORT

This policy report examines the evolving geopolitical dynamics in Southeast Asia, analysing how major powers - the United States, China, and Russia - engage with the region through various forms of influence. With a focus on Malaysia as a case study, the analysis explores how these powers employ different approaches, from cultural exports to investments in education and media.

REPORT

The policy brief explores how local media narratives shape regional perceptions and recommends that international actors better align their messaging with Global South priorities, particularly regarding decolonisation and equitable governance. Indonesia and Malaysia's responses to the Ukraine conflict reflect complex postcolonial and Islamic perspectives, balancing pragmatic interests with historical grievances against Western powers.

ANALYSIS

IS-K, a regional Islamic State affiliate, claimed responsibility for the recent Moscow attack. Originally formed by former Taliban members, IS-K recruits heavily from Central Asian countries and uses sophisticated funding methods. Despite facing challenges at home, the group has demonstrated its capability to execute deadly attacks internationally, prompting heightened security across Europe.

ANALYSIS

Recent Moscow terror analysis reveals IS-K's deadly Crocus City Hall attack as Russia's worst in 20 years. Despite US intelligence warnings dismissed by Putin as "blackmail," the Kremlin swiftly blamed Ukraine rather than acknowledge the Islamic State's responsibility. This deflection serves dual purposes: mobilising public support for the Ukraine war while concealing Russia's problematic approach to Islamist insurgents in North Caucasus republics and Central Asia, potentially undermining Putin's strategic cultivation of Muslim allies globally.

POLICY BRIEF

The policy brief argues that it is crucial for policymakers and practitioners to understand how the state identifies 'extremists.' In Western contexts, extremism is typically viewed as severe anti-government actions. However, in the Global South, the situation often differs as some governments may support their own extremists while labeling nonviolent opposition as extremist. The full report is available for download at ICCT.

NET ASSESSMENT

Malaysia faces political tensions between Anwar Ibrahim's coalition government and the rising Islamist party PAS, with debates about whether PAS represents a genuine "green wave" or merely benefits from UMNO's collapse. Critics suggest government crackdowns against PAS risk backfiring, as equating the party with extremist groups mischaracterises its mainstream electoral support.

ANALYSIS

The Oslo spy case reveals how intelligence agencies increasingly recruit from non-aligned nations like Malaysia to exploit diplomatic blind spots. By using operatives from unexpected regions, countries such as Russia and China leverage Malaysia's powerful passport and neutral geopolitical stance. Despite Malaysia's non-align position, the detention demonstrates how smaller nations can unwittingly become pawns in remote conflicts, potentially damaging their international standing and diplomatic relationships.

ANALYSIS

This analysis examines how Prigozhin's dramatic demise reflects Putin's Russia functioning as a mafia state where disloyalty is unforgivable. Tracing Putin's criminal connections to 1990s St Petersburg, it explores the calculated elimination as a warning to Russian elites while highlighting potential disruption to Wagner's African operations, despite Putin's enduring power structure.

ANALYSIS
The Wagner Group has expanded Russian influence in Africa by exploiting anti-Western sentiment and security vacuums, particularly in Niger and Mali. Despite its leader Prigozhin's failed uprising against the Kremlin, the mercenary organisation continues to advance Russian interests while securing valuable resources that help Moscow circumvent international sanctions. This relationship highlights the evolving nature of statecraft through non-state actors.

ANALYSIS

Despite controversy over the US supplying cluster munitions to Ukraine, concerns about humanitarian law violations are misplaced. Unlike Russia, which uses these weapons indiscriminately against civilians, Ukraine pledges judicious use on its own territory with low-failure-rate munitions. This critical military tool could decisively tip the conflict in Ukraine's favour against Russian aggression.

TERRAIN ANALYSIS

Islamic State's influence in Southeast Asia has been overstated, with militant groups struggling against effective counterterrorism measures and failing to unite around a common purpose. While religious extremism drives militancy in Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines, these groups face significant operational challenges including fragmentation, leadership losses and funding difficulties, with their capabilities further diminished during the COVID-19 pandemic.

REPORT

Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Malaysia’s social media has been abuzz with discussions on the conflict, with different groups expressing both condemnation and support for Russia. This paper examines pro-Russian sentiments and unpacks them for possible explanations for why such views prevail amongst Malaysians. The full report is available for download at ISEAS Perspective. A long read version is available at Fulcrum.

REPORT

This study analysed social media accounts and content associated with the extreme right-wing movements in the Maritime Southeast Asia digital environment. The full report is available for download at GNET.

NET ASSESSMENT

Chechen fighters under warlord Ramzan Kadyrov joined Russia's Ukraine invasion as propaganda tools, but their poor battlefield performance revealed serious military inadequacies despite their fearsome reputation. Their failures highlight how Kadyrov prioritised cultivating a brutal social media image over developing actual combat capabilities, exposing Putin's problematic reliance on the Chechen leader.